13 Feb 2022
After the fall of the Soviet Union, the US chained the Russian Federation with security agreements that only resembled controlling the defeated in a war
A phone call took 62 minutes from the time of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Joseph Biden, and this call was preceded by a written American proposal two weeks ago to improve the conditions of those security agreements. At that time, Washington knew the Russian demands and restricted the negotiation to a narrow angle
The effects of this phone call will become apparent immediately as the Russians have a longer breath of patience for the Americans, which they have exhausted by scattering them behind the UK
It is noticeable that every American phone call is received by Putin directly without procrastination, as was the case in the seventies and eighties, as if they were surprised at the delay of the Americans in starting negotiations
Personally: I expect that the American offer from Biden did not live up to the level of Russian escalation, so Russia has become in a situation of no return, where its retreat will be weak, and its progression with the invasion means that it will take an unknown path, which is not desired by Vladimir Putin and the club in which will be the biggest loser of the crisis, if it swelled, and it would include Turkey and some eastern and northern European countries
At a time when Europe is facing a disaster related to gas supplies if a war breaks out and Europe is drawn into it, Biden is resting in the resort now, as if the United States really wanted Russia to attack the rising oil prices are also encouraging for Russia without any American reaction by flooding the market with oil Turkish President Erdogan’s infection with Covid 19 will end and they will not accept him to distance himself, while China is studying every American step, so that its role will come with Hong Kong and Taiwan
The observer of the situation sees 150,000 Russian soldiers mobilized for the war and sees dozens of Russian maneuvers in western Russia and Belarus, and the occupation of Ukraine does not require that and the American front, if America enters the war, it may open to Russia fronts by NATO forces from its west and from America and others from its east. So the mobilization of this Russian number is not really war, but rather what is meant is negotiation on security demands and the escalation continued. The Americans did not actually move except during the past less than two days. Where the leaders of NATO met virtually, then the communications of the American and Russian foreign and defense ministers, then Presidents Putin and Biden
Two days ago, I expected that Biden's proposal would not rise to the occasion. The White House had published what transpired in the two presidents' call, and it did not deviate from what I said during the past two days, and the questions here arise:
What is the US interest in Russia's attack on Ukraine?
Or do you believe in the disappearance of the sun of American military and economic hegemony to this level?! Would one of the two possibilities strengthen you if America now announced its return to the nuclear agreement with the Islamic Republic of Iran and even reclassified the Houthis as a terrorist organization? Perhaps it is important to ask:
Are the American F22 planes that America announced during these two days of supporting the UAE against Houthi attacks? Is this really America's purpose?!
For me, I see that the Russian option is currently hesitant between military air strikes, often with a large-scale electronic attack, and a rapid comprehensive invasion that is limited to changing the government and installing a president loyal to it
But I don't see a way for an extremist solution to the right of Putin's return without military action
There is no extreme left solution for NATO or America to enter the war if it lasts for a short time
The response of the markets, especially oil, will not be less than an increase of 7 dollars in the first military option, and in the second option it will not be less than an increase of 17 dollars
Shipments of China and Japan will be affected by the high logistics costs due to the rise in insurance policies, which will push them to realize benefits from this crisis to settle the expected damages
As CNN Arabic tweeted, confirming my expectation from the level of the two presidents' conversation and the expected results from it
Also, the Pentagon spokesman said a while ago that their forces (120 US military) were withdrawn from Ukraine to Poland
Hello Putin!
The truth is that Russia is short on Putin. Either he will remake the Russian Empire or he will break up the Russian Federation
If his adventure in Ukraine succeeds, he may soon be hiking in the Baltic states
And if Ukraine resisted for two weeks, it might turn into a quagmire and the front of Chechnya, Ingushetia and Dagestan would ignite, and America would turn a blind eye to Islamic resistance movements in it with its funds
If Russia withdraws, it is Putin’s end, and China will take over Russia’s military position. As for Biden, if they cut him off, he will not enter any war unless America’s interests in it will definitely be achieved because the midterm elections are at the door and the Democrats’ performance so far is leading them to lose seats in the House of Representatives then Bernie Sanders, one of the three most important figures in the Democratic Party itself and the leader of the Progressives, opposes the war and if the president was a republican, he would not enter it, because the conservative far right in the Republican Party opposes this war as well. Perhaps a sudden ignition of another front changes the scales, or the Russian bear drowned in the wet Ukrainian mud these days, or a real American fear of losing Germany without it, do not wait for US military intervention!
