The next German government will be a centrist coalition, as always, with all sorts of coalitions. This means that the EU can count on it to provide predictable and stable leadership as German politics shows a balance between European and international politics alike
But in the present situation, what does the German federal elections mean for Brussels?!
Most of the international actors share a strong commitment to the European Union, NATO and the Eurozone in general
Outside Germany the extent to which German security power and business interests underpin the European and international policies of its leaders are often underestimated
Membership of the European Union and NATO, for example, are not temporary projects for Germany but are at the heart of its national interest
No chancellor from a CDU background would abandon the eurozone or expel one of its members, and no chancellor from the Green Party's background would suddenly change course on China drastically despite some hard-line rhetoric emerging from party members as Germany's business interests are very strong
This policy is a double-edged sword that Europe can count on the incoming German government to provide stable and predictable leadership but no conceivable coalition seems willing to defy voters over their preference for some of the current policies such as tight fiscal rules, tight monetary policy, aversion to military interventions, and reduced confrontation with Russia or China
But there are subtle nuances between the possible alliances of the next German government that might affect Europe:
1️⃣ The (traffic light) coalition government will be keen to invest in modernizing Germany's economy and public administration, but this coalition will not be able to find a way in which the domestic fiscal rules can be reformed fundamentally against the opposition of the CDU because changing a provision of the constitution requires a two-thirds majority. In the houses of the German parliament, the Bundestag and the Bundesrat It is possible to amend the existing financial rules through private investment funds but without proper change in Germany and therefore it will be difficult to reform the financial rules of the European Union
2️⃣ In contrast to the (Traffic Light) coalition, the CDU-Green coalition could reform Germany's fiscal rules by allowing more public investment to combat climate change and setting the tone for something similar at the EU level
In general, the mere fact that the German government will be a centrist coalition means that its European and international policies will be different from the status quo.
No comments:
Post a Comment