17 Dec. 2021
Whoever thinks that there is a perfect human being, he/she is undoubtedly wrong, Almost all commentators on political affairs, whether in Europe, the United States or the world have praised the great Mrs. Merkel She undoubtedly provided a unique German model and lesson However, every human being who has passed and passes and will pass on our world has his/her positive and negative sides, and this is a renewed human characteristic,
In 1998, in the wake of the so-called (black money) scandal, which is the funding scandal of Germany's largest party, the CDU led by the great late Chancellor Helmut Kohl Mr. Kohl was forced at the time to retire from politics, to end an important era in German history, not only political, but also an existential era, as it took place during that period:
First: the union of the Christian-Democratic and Christian Social twin parties that exists only in the state of Bavaria in one parliamentary bloc and one sovereign decision
Second: the reunification of the two Germans, who were among the victims of the Cold War between the Western and Eastern blocs
Third: Unifying the European Union into an integrated social, economic and political group,
But Kohl's retirement from politics did not constitute a major predicament for the party. Rather, Kohl, with his political ingenuity, created a professional political group that was quickly able to get out of the cycle of declining numbers and the scandal that the party was exposed to The group was led by Dr. Angela Merkel, accompanied by Mrs. Ursula von der Leyen (currently President of the European Commission), Mrs. Julia Klöckner (she held many ministerial positions during the era of Mrs. Merkel) and Mr. Peter Altiemaier (he held many ministerial positions also during the era of Mrs. Merkel) ... etc.,
But today, after the end of Mrs. Merkel's era, her CDU party finds itself without high-class political figures While not forgetting that the party has worked for a long time and is still working on its youth committees, and I am involved in most of them because I belong intellectually to this party which provided the chancellery with five high-ranking chancellors and statesmen But how can we see the party’s predicament today, whose numbers witnessed a significant decline, not from the parliamentary elections last September, but even in the elections that preceded them in 2017,
Mrs. Merkel's calm and scientific personality made her highly dependent on numbers, and in the world of politics, numbers are a problematic part, but not everything the chemical doctor relied, in the way of her partisan management, on equations based on one plus one equals two, and this is not in line with partisan policies that require publicity and promotion of policies Also, Mrs. Merkel’s equation deals with the inevitability of reaching a result of avoiding the worst as if she is a crisis leader, and this may be successful in the state’s policies externally, perhaps, but at the party and internal levels it is contrary to the policy equation based on the principle of (the art of the possible) Therefore, the era of Mrs. Merkel did not produce politicians, even if they did not have the experience, but there are no charismatic personalities This is what other party circles have worked on, such as the Green Party, the Free Democratic Party and the Social Democrats (to a lesser degree) What makes matters worse is that the orientation of international politics is directed towards social democratic ideas and green policies, and this requires liberalism, and this is the opposite of the (conservative) orientations of the (conservative) Christian Democratic Union, although the party is currently presenting itself as a center-right party,
Today's decision circles within the Christian Democratic Union do not have those charismatic personalities to continue imposing right-wing politics and here the name of Friedrich Merz, the hard-line conservative politician and veteran, has emerged since he has been practicing politics since the time of the late Chancellor Kohl He was repeatedly defeated by Mrs. Merkel and Mrs. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer as recently as 2018 by a narrow margin, which was the result of Merkel being the leading face of the party This will make possible his candidacy as the new chairperson of the CDU, which is also a profound turning point from the perspective of Munich, the capital of the state of Bavaria, which is dominated by the party's Brotherhood party This will put the union relationship between Christian Democrats and Christian Socialists to the test,
For the first time in the party's history, the Christian Democratic Union will be headed by Friedrich Merz, who is certainly more hard-line and conservative than the head of the Christian Social Union in Bavaria So that the old division of political roles that was in place in the past decades no longer works and here the union between the Christian twins will have to reinvent a way to work together Otherwise, the union will be subject to disintegration, and even the social Christian will be subject to isolation and then clinical death perhaps,
Frederic Merz and Christian Social Party leader Marcus Soder are united primarily by their mutual hatred Merz made no secret of seeing Sodder's demeanor (elegant, disrespectful, at times boisterous) and Sodder made no secret of his belief that Meers was a man of the past So I expect that Merz and Sodder will now call for a union, but first of all they have to find an interim settlement between them It can be said that the two characters have at least one thing in common, in temperament, style, directness, and rigor,
The first tests of the Christian social will be close, as next year there will be 4 local elections in the states and in 2023 Marcus Söder is about to run in the elections in the traditional party state of Bavaria In current polls, the Christian Social Party is in a historically bad position, having reached 31.7% in the last federal elections in Bavaria,
Within three years Frederic Merz and Marcus Soder will have to agree on who will run between them for chancellor From the Christian Social Party's point of view, the lesson of this year's election should be to put the person who has the best chances Merz has already indicated that as CDU chairwoman he will call for a run for chancellor In my personal opinion, both parties will not succeed in leading the Union to an important place. If this situation continues, Germany's largest parties will live in a situation that the Social Democrats lived in previously.
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