Monday 23 August 2021

Taliban story ...

18 Aug 2021

For those who claim that the Taliban movement is Sufi and not Salafi, this article will be an explanation of the true Taliban doctrine and through it we will understand why this group used religious violence and ruled according to the Salafi Sharia that other takfiris raised in the Middle East, including the expired Muslim Brotherhood. Through the article we will see the origin of this movement and its historical roots

One of the manifestations of the Taliban’s lack of association with Sufism is that it forbids the celebration of the Prophet’s birthday and does not depend on visiting shrines and forbidding the building of tombstones. This Taliban behavior is purely Salafi, as its roots go back to the Indian Deobandi movement that arose in the nineteenth century and extended into Pakistan, which was a source for spreading Taliban thought in Afghanistan later

It was the British occupation of India that supported the Deobandi Salafist movement in its infancy, just as it supported the Salafist movement later in the Arabian Peninsula that produced Wahhabism, and it was he who called for the establishment of religious associations in Egypt such as the Legitimate Assembly, Ansar al-Sunna, Muslim youth, Muslim Brotherhood and others with the aim of getting closer to peoples, taming them and persuading them not to revolt against British rule. Either in India or the Middle East in general

The Indian Salafi Deobandi movement is considered the spiritual father of the Taliban movement at that time, Pakistan was part of India at the end of the ninth century The Taliban grew up in an atmosphere of Pakistani Islamic independence from Hinduism, and because the movement established a series of Salafi Islamic schools, one of the most important things they learned was the wars of independence on a religious basis, which is what distinguishes the Taliban The Deobandi Salafi movement originated on the Hanafi Maturidi sect, unlike the Hanbali Pakistani school of the Red Mosque A rivalry took place between the two schools, but it did not reach the point of violence because they had previously participated in the basic Salafi school of thought, which may accept the Hanafis who believe in the application of the literal Sharia that Muslim clerics called for, such as Muhammad bin Abd al-Wahhab The contemporary Hanafi school of thought is different from the first Hanafi school of thought founded by Abu Hanifa al-Nu’man. Abu Hanifa did not believe in the sanctity of hadith and believed in the authority of reason. However, the later Hanafis turned against this doctrine and followed the methodology of the people of hadith altogether following the issuance of the Abbasid decision in the Qadiri Document in 408 AH

The Qadiri Document was issued by the Abbasid Caliph Qadir by Allah, and it commanded the followers of the hadiths and the criminalization of all their opponents from the Mu’tazilites, the Shiites, and the people of opinion This forced the Hanafis to change their sect and start a revolution in Hanafi thought that saw the necessity of sanctifying the narratives, and the most famous of these revolutions took place at the hands of al-Sarakhsi al-Sarakhsi, who died in 409 AH Turkmenistan was one of the most famous founders of the Hanafi school, but rather is the mayor of contemporary Hanafis in his jurisprudence book (Al-Mabsout). Through this book, Al-Sarakhsi succeeded in inventing a new Hanafi school of thought dominated by the modernists, subject to the decision of the Abbasid Caliph in origin The Taliban movement is indeed Hanafi, but the doctrine it follows does not differ from that of the people of hadith and resembles the methodology of Hanbali thinking, especially in political affairs and their perception of Sharia, governance, the other, women and minorities..etc. The movement was influenced by the thought of Ibn Abd al-Wahhab by promoting the so-called Islamic state and guarding the creed..etc

The chain of religious schools that arose in India and Pakistan was very large and included most of the Muslim lands. From these schools, the Taliban emerged after the Pakistani wars of independence, and the Taliban gained genetic hostility against India on one hand and against everything that violates the Sharia that they learned in schools on the other hand The religious schools that expelled the Taliban were the main fatwa center and not the state. Pakistan as a state was not a religious source for the people nor its official institutions, but the Pakistani people were followed by the Deobandi jurists and the Red Mosque and through them the Islamic group appeared, which is the Pakistan Brotherhood The sheikhs of the Deobandi movement who created the Taliban had ideological battles against the Afghan and Pakistani secularists that reached the point of takfir in the seventies, and when the United States of America declared the Afghan jihad against the Soviets, the movement’s influence developed and took on a popular dimension, which later contributed to their control of Afghanistan in the nineties

The Indian Sufi jurists who saw the interest of the Deobandis in politics and governance rebelled against this doctrine, so they came up with a new group that combines Sufi morals and the doctrine of the people of hadith Deobandi It was the (Tablighi and Dawah) group, which cooperated with the Taliban only socially, but did not cooperate with it in politics The weakness of the Afghan and Pakistani secularists is the secret in the popularity and spread of the Taliban, as the state did not support them in return for the sweeping spread of the Deobandi religious schools similar to what is happening in Egypt when the Al-Azhar religious schools spread overwhelmingly with the support of the state, which led to a Salafi coup that is in control of the Egyptians to this day

Egypt would have been a candidate to repeat the Afghan model had it not been for the jihadists’ haste to kill the symbols of the state, its officials and its elite, in addition to the tourists and the Copts As this created a popular resentment against them, it prompted many Salafists and groups to be wary of expressing their convictions and criticizing the jihadists on the surface, which led to delaying the Afghanization of Egypt for decades After the January 2011 revolution in Egypt, the Brotherhood and Salafis of all their sects and their intellectual and political diversity, in addition to some Azharites, joined forces to establish a religious state along the lines of the Indian Deobandi movement and the Taliban model, but the alliance fell into a series of political mistakes that prompted the army to isolate it and encourage the revolution against it in June 2013

There are thousands of Deobandi schools all over the world that bring out the ideology of the Taliban every day, sponsored by the so-called Association of Islamic Scholars, that is, it is not confined only to Afghanistan, just as there are thousands of Al-Azhar schools that graduate Salafis who believe in the application of the Salafi Sharia and the terrorist craft tradition The Taliban movement was not based on financial and external support, as is common, but was based on local efforts and popular donations. The Taliban’s lack of dependence on foreign funds made it very popular and a distinguished moral presence in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Even partial Iranian support for the movement can be observed in its resistance to America and the positive statements of Iranian officials towards its leaders after the departure of the Americans, and that is another different story

Please note that the Indian Deobandi movement that founded the Taliban was not strict in applying its teachings in the beginning, but it became hardened and became more aggressive after the Pakistani wars of independence against India It can be considered that the history of the emergence of jihadist groups in Central Asia in general was related to those wars, and had it not been for the Soviet and then American occupation, the Taliban would not have ruled or appeared in the picture, or the jurists of the Deobandi movement would have any political influence, nor did their schools have any authoritarian influence, but the chaos and injustice that the occupation created is which enabled the Taliban to emerge and then spread and then rule and sovereignty.

The rich and the elephant and the deep state outside the text

12 Feb 2021

Among the scientific information about the elephant is that it is very smart, very patient and very emotional. Among the confirmed information drawn by the politics of the wealthy is that the interest plays a major role in their way of thinking and it is known about the deep state that it is trying to play on the ropes of the elephant and the rich!!!

▶️ How can we read the map of the solid institutions or the decision-making circle that governs Washington, or in simple words, what are the most important pillars of the deep state?!
The deep state rests on three main pillars:
1️⃣ Planning and organization is one of its most important institutions 👇🏼
Ministry of Defense senior army generals
Ministry of Foreign Affairs
National Security Team
2️⃣ Implementation and management are among its most important centers 👇🏼
Wall Street financial forces and transnational corporations
3️⃣ Propaganda, advertising, media and dissemination are among its most important actors 👇🏼
Media institutions, both old and new, and public relations offices.

▶️ Businessman Donald John Trump wouldn't have reached the presidency of the US without a green light from the deep state, which allowed him to gain access at the expense of one of the most prominent symbols of the deep state, Mrs. Hillary Clinton But what happened?!
Trump, in his naivety, believed that his tyrannical masses could challenge the deep state, like previous presidents of the White House, most notably John F. Kennedy, James Garfield and Abraham Lincoln Trump played with fire, so the deep state decided to remove and discipline him in the harshest way possible to serve as an example to others Trump’s dismissal of his Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, was the beginning of the rupture of the cord between Trump and the deep state. Trump crossed the red line, dismissing National Security Adviser General McMaster and then went away to dismiss Defense Secretary General Mattis, and then the deep state realized that Trump was able to establish his own deep state, which, according to his claim, consisted of  At least 80 million Americans and began to speak openly about that he will eradicate corruption in Washington, i.e. the deep state (DRAIN THE SWAMPS), and here the decision was taken to remove him Here he wanted to eliminate the deep state and establish America on new rules similar to the founding fathers,

▶️ The deep state decided to remove Trump, and therefore any Democratic candidate would win the presidency, and therefore chose Joe Biden among the six Democratic candidates because he is not electable in normal circumstances and failed to run for the presidency twice before that Biden was also chosen because the stage requires the presence of an image president only the deep state can control  frankly, and Biden is perfect for that,

▶️ The war on Trump was the fiercest in political history, not just American history, and it included 1️⃣ a fierce media attack, and 2️⃣ book-writing war, in which Trump’s niece was recruited to write a satirical book about him, the book of Bob Woodward, one of the most prominent deep state loyalists, the book of John Bolton, his former national security adviser, and dozens of others. This war was drawn by a bad Trump and he must go It is the misfortune of the deep state that all this fierce attack on Trump increased his supporters' attachment to him, so the pandemic of #coronavirus #COVID19 🦠 was exploited to use mail voting Despite all this, Trump won the two most important states: Florida and Ohio on Election Day, and he was the undisputed winner, with 75 million Americans voting for him,

▶️ The deep state did not use its claws and fangs against Trump until January 6, after the storming of Congress. After that day, Trump realized that the deep state, which he said he would drown, had drowned him, as it possesses all the centers of power and tools and possesses the symbols of the Republicans, so he decided to raise the white flag and ask for safety even when Trump left  to his resort and awaited the outcome of his trial, which ended in his acquittal,

▶️ Noting that the Democrats’ approval yesterday to vote and not to call witnesses is not out of love for Trump, but because witnesses under oath and the dome of Congress will tell the truth and the truth only, especially with regard to the elections, which may reveal scandals that destroy the Democratic and Republican Party. Together, the seven Republicans who voted to impeach Trump yesterday all have fierce opponents. With Trump and their vote was motivated by personal revenge,

▶️ After his acquittal, Trump said in a brief statement that he would resume his political activity, so what would he do?!  I do not think that he will establish a new party. He is currently the undisputed master of the Republican Party, and the party without him is torn and scattered without leadership.
The Republicans are now in a somewhat complicated situation, as there are currently three streams in the party:

The first stream: The Trump movement, which represents the most hard-line part of the party, and is eager to confront the Democrats and break the bones of those who oppose them from the Republicans so that they either join them or leave the party voluntarily or forcibly

The second trend: It is the rejection of Trump, who not only wants to get rid of him, but also wants to get rid of his legacy, because they see it as a stigma that must be cleansed of the party.  Other Republicans may cooperate on specific points or projects and in a very narrow scope to achieve common goals, and on the contrary, they may deliberately escalate against some items of Biden’s agenda in order to prove that their opposition to Trump is moral and not principled, meaning that they are as keen as others or more on the conservative agenda

The third trend in the party: It is the current that does not support Trump, but does not want to confront him. This group either fears confrontation or simply sees that Trump is a stage and has ended and that it should not be confronted so as not to lose any gains made through it. The second sector, which does not want to lose gains, is precisely the one who  They seek to hold the stick from the middle, as we saw Senator Mitch McConnell trying to do after Trump's acquittal session. The problem this current faces lies in the fact that the Trump movement is not ready to compromise and wants to control everything at all costs, but they think that this stage will end quickly because they believe that Trump  As a political figure, he will disappear faster than his fans and enemies alike expect. Trump, on the other hand, has the motive and the money, and so he may establish his own media platforms. America, and most importantly, he believes that he did not lose the elections, but was removed from the presidency

▶️ If we look closely at what is being presented on the political scene these days, we will find someone who cites Sarah Palin, who has emerged strongly in the same hard-line offensive style that distinguished Trump and how it became his face to the Republican Party in a period of time until some asserted that it is the future of the Republican Party only to disappear quickly after the loss of the 2008 elections  In which she was the vice presidential candidate, they believe that a good portion of the voters whose enthusiasm and support Palin aroused have forgotten her, but they have not forgotten their enthusiasm for the party and that they reaped this enthusiasm in the 2010 elections, through which the Tea Party was able to reap this enthusiasm and extract the majority of the House of Representatives in favor of the Republicans  Therefore, they want to appease the enthusiastic voters as much as possible instead of entering into a confrontation with them, as the movement rejecting Trump seeks to do. The sizes of these currents are not completely clear, but we can take a glimpse of the size of the movement rejecting Trump completely from two votes that took place in the House of Representatives, where 10 voted with the impeachment of Trump and  11 With the expulsion of Senator Greene from the committees, a similar glimpse can be taken from the Senate votes during the trial, where he voted between 5 and 7 against Trump in the various questions asked

▶️ The Trump movement, on the other hand, there is currently only one vote by which we can separate them from the complacency, which is the secret vote that took place on the decision to expel Liz Cheney from her leadership position in the House of Representatives.  These numbers show that at this moment neither of the two currents (pro-Trump and anti-Trump) represents a large majority in the party that would enable it to break the bone of the other current, although the indicators show that the Trump movement is greater than the current that rejects Trump in absolute, and therefore we can conclude that if there is no hope  Those who are appreciative of Trump’s image will fade quickly, as they hope. The Trump movement, although it will not control the party completely, will remain a strong and cohesive bloc that will allow Trump to impose great influence on the party during the months that extend from now until the midterm elections next year

▶️ Of course, there is another hope for the pacifist movement that the Democrats will do the task instead of them by dragging Trump to the courts through the various investigations that are currently open against him in several states or even through the federal prosecution, but this possibility faces two obstacles, the first is (Is there really enough evidence to convict Trump in  The courts?) and the second (Are the Democrats really angry with Trump more than their desire for the continuation and widening of the rift and conflict within the Republican Party that the Trump influence will cause?) Both questions cannot be answered now.  Criminal conviction On the second question, Democrats cannot admit that they would prefer their political interest to what they say every day that it is their moral duty, so we cannot know what exactly they will do in the end

▶️ The Democrats and their arms have not finished Trump and will pursue him in every possible way, either by filing criminal cases or escalating his previous cases.
There are two visions of Trump's future:
The first vision is that the decision of the deep state to remove him permanently, and therefore he will be pursued until the end, and perhaps activate the option to liquidate him, as happened in the former presidents Eisenhower and Kennedy
The second vision is that the deep state may restore him after he has been educated and rehabilitated. The deep state realizes the danger of isolating Trump and his audience from the political scene, as this will cause division to the point of no return and threaten the American social fabric, and we may witness a civil war again

▶️ Therefore, you may see that the safest is the exchange of power between the extreme left and the conservatives. It may be Trump or another politician like his daughter Ivanica or former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, for example. What is certain is that America is currently in a state of sharp ideological division and the organizations of the left and right are in a state of congestion and there are media  Misleading, biased, and trespassing on liberties, unmistakable, and a state of fear and popular anticipation of what is to come. Perhaps Trump learned the lesson from what happened to him, and perhaps not. He made major mistakes such as trusting those who were against him (John Bolton for example) and marginalizing advisors as a result of his high narcissism. The question here is whether Trump will return  Or is it a new, polite version that knows the limits of its powers without crossing the red lines of the deep state,

▶️ All this movement and questions and counter-questions make the coming period a very sensitive and hot period in American politics, especially in light of the advent of a new administration facing difficult challenges and carrying an ambitious agenda that wants to achieve as many of its provisions as possible Therefore, we must tighten our belts, as we are facing a very exciting political journey, awaiting developments.

The flapping of a butterfly's wings in India may cause flooding in the Amazon River

23 AUG 2019

This sentence came in a very beautiful book which is (Chaos Theory and Irrationalism) by the American writer and science journalist Mr. James Glick
There is an urgent need today to teach such literature, research and studies in the various educational houses, whether in schools and universities, and to display them extensively today in cultural centers, as it must be included as a general culture of societies The environment today does not belong to a single group, society or country in the world. Phenomena such as forest burning, global warming, damage resulting from fuel combustion, ozone hole, damage resulting from the use of plastic materials, damage resulting from the use of petrochemicals and inorganic manufactured materials....etc. Which led to climate change, the death of many types of fish, water shortage, severe food shortage, and the emergence of many diseases, both in water, most notably malaria, or the emergence of diseases in meat or desertification in different environments...etc.
The sentence with which I titled this text, and by delving into its depth, we will find that the world, with its land, water and sky, is one body and in a relative way, any damage to a part of this body, the repercussions do not come on the organ only, but on all other organs, and exactly like the body, there are diseases that affect quickly affects the body, and there are diseases that take the form of permanent in the body and affect the long-term,

“At the beginning of my career as an environmental activist, I thought I was defending rubber trees, then I started to believe I was defending the Amazon, and I ended up convinced that I was defending humanity,” said the late Brazilian environmental activist, lawyer and politician Mr. Chico Mendes Mr. Mendes left our world at the end of the eighties in defense of environmental issues, where his important work led to his quest to form the Earth Summit that was held in Brazil in the early nineties
Do not think that environmental issues are a disease or a disaster waiting to happen, but rather it is like a battery that we keep using until it runs out. With the practices of humanity, we seek to implement it faster than we imagine, although we have the tools, conditions and the will to charge nature instead of consuming it. Nature remains silent and gives us indications of its mark, but when a disaster occurs, it is so insane that it is so profoundly destructive,

Forest fires are not new. There are vivid examples such as forest fires in Israel, forest fires in India and East Asia, fires that broke out in the European continent, and sustainable fires in the United States of America, most notably and most recently, the Florida fires. Forest fires have many causes, where the causes are divided into two groups:
The first is natural and includes thunder strikes that give off the first spark, as well as the sparkle that results from rolling stones, spontaneous ignition and volcanic eruptions.
The second is the fires caused by humans directly or indirectly through deliberate fire. Cigarettes thrown in nature are neglected fire without the control of the spark resulting from a cut electric wire and cutting large areas of trees, and the abandoned wood between the plant accelerates the fire and helps its growth
It should be noted that these reasons differ according to regions because they are related to the nature of the land, the type of soil and the general climatic situation in this part of the world.

The first group of causes are natural and we can avoid them, and they do not affect the environment badly, as the causes have existed since the origin of the earth, but the second group resulting from the actions and behaviors of human beings is the one that seeks unrivaledly to eliminate the environment and this is the result of human greed at all levels and it is a precursor of matchless ignorance,

Today, the lungs of the world, as the Amazon forests are called, are subjected to rotten human domination. Please note that the Amazon region constitutes 20% of the world’s oxygen and contains 20% of the world’s fresh water, which constitutes 40% of the world’s forests Statements of the right-wing Brazilian President The extremist Mr. Giar Polisarano today about these fires when he said that there are special parties working on these fires and even reduce the results of these fires and their number The exit of Brazilian President Polisrano, accompanied by US President Donald Trump, from the Paris Agreement on global warming that leads to climate change indicates that dictatorships and populist regimes will be an obstacle, but rather a harbinger of the imminent death of nature, the world and humanity In fact, the regime of President Polisrano and Venezuelan President Maduro, who supports the cultivation of cannabis and narcotics in forest areas and transforming them into industrial zones for petrochemicals, nuclear materials and weapons, is a dangerous influence.

Wednesday 18 August 2021

حكاية طالبان ‏

‏لمن يزعم أن حركة طالبان صوفية وليست سلفية هذا المقال سيكون شرحا لمذهب طالبان الحقيقي ومن خلاله نفهم لماذا سلكت هذه الجماعة العنف الديني وحكمت بالشريعة السلفية التي يرفعها التكفيريون الآخرون بالشرق الأوسط ومنهم جماعة الإخوان المسلمين المنتهية الصلاحية ومن خلال المقال سنرى أصل هذه الحركة وجذورها التاريخية

من مظاهر عدم ارتباط حركة طالبان بالصوفية أنها تمنع الاحتفال بالمولد النبوي ولا تعتمد زيارة الأضرحة وتمنع بناء الشواهد على القبور هذا السلوك الطالباني سلفي صرف حيث تعود جذوره للحركة الديوباندية الهندية التي نشأت في القرن التاسع عشر وامتدت داخل باكستان التي كانت مصدرا لنشر فكر طالبان بأفغانستان لاحقا

الاحتلال البريطاني للهند هو الذي دعم الحركة الديوباندية السلفية في مهدها مثلما دعم الحركة السلفية لاحقا في شبه الجزيرة العربية التي أنتجت الوهابية وهو الذي دعا لقيام الجمعيات الدينية في مصر كالجمعية الشرعية وأنصار السنة والشبان المسلمين والإخوان المسلمين وغيرهم بهدف التقرب للشعوب وتدجينهم وإقناعهم بعدم الثورة على الحكم البريطاني سواء في الهند أو الشرق الأوسط عموما

الحركة الديوباندية السلفية الهندية تعد الأب الروحي لحركة طالبان وقتها كانت باكستان جزءا من الهند اواخر القرن التاسع فنشأت طالبان في أجواء استقلال إسلامي باكستاني عن الهندوسية ولأن الحركة أسست سلسلة مدارس إسلامية سلفية كان من أهم ما تعلموه حروب الاستقلال على أساس ديني وهو ما يميز طالبان الحركة الديوباندية السلفية نشأت على المذهب الحنفي الماتوريدي خلافا لمدرسة الجامع الأحمر الباكستانية الحنبلية حدث تنافس بين المدرستين لكنه لم يصل لحد العنف لسبق اشتراكهم في المذهب السلفي الأساسي الذي قد يقبل الأحناف المؤمنين بتطبيق الشريعة الحرفية التي دعا لها رجال دين مسلمين كمحمد بن عبدالوهاب السعودي المذهب الحنفي المعاصر مختلف عن المذهب الحنفي الأول الذي أسسه أبي حنيفة النعمان فأبي حنيفة لم يؤمن بقدسية الحديث وآمن بحجية العقل لكن الأحناف المتأخرين انقلبوا على هذا المذهب وسلكوا منهجية أهل الحديث بالكلية عقب إصدار القرار العباسي بالوثيقة القادرية عام ٤٠٨ ه‍‍

‏الوثيقة القادرية أصدرها الخليفة العباسي القادر بالله وكانت تأمر باتباع أهل الحديث وتجريم كل مخالفيهم من المعتزلة والشيعة وأهل الرأي فأجبر ذلك الأحناف على تغيير مذهبهم وبدء انقلاب في الفكر الحنفي يرى ضرورة تقديس الروايات وأشهر تلك الانقلابات حدثت على يد السرخسي ‏السرخسي المتوفي عام ٤٠٩ ه‍‍ كان تركمانيا من أشهر مؤسسي المذهب الحنفي بل هو عمدة الأحناف المعاصرين في كتابه الفقهي (المبسوط) فمن خلال هذا الكتاب نجح السرخسي في اختراع مذهب حنفي جديد يغلب عليه طابع المحدثين خضوعا لقرار الخليفة العباسي بالأصل
حركة طالبان حنفية بالفعل لكن المذهب الذي تتبعه لا يختلف عن مذهب أهل الحديث ويشبه منهجية تفكير الحنابلة خصوصا في الشأن السياسي وتصورهم للشريعة والحاكمية والآخر والمرأة والأقليات..إلخ وقد تأثرت الحركة بفكر ابن عبدالوهاب بترويج ما يسمى بالدولة الإسلامية وحراسة العقيدة..إلخ

سلسلة المدارس الدينية التي نشأت في الهند وباكستان كانت ضخمة جدا وشملت معظم أراضي المسلمين ومن تلك المدارس خرجت طالبان بعد حروب الاستقلال الباكستانية فاكتسبت طالبان عداءا وراثيا ضد الهند من ناحية وضد كل ما يخالف الشريعة التي تعلموها في المدارس من ناحية أخرى المدارس الدينية التي أخرجت طالبان كانت هي مركز الفتوى الرئيسي وليست الدولة فباكستان كدولة لم تكن مصدرا دينيا عند الشعب ولا مؤسساتها الرسمية بل تَبِعَ الشعب الباكستاني فقهاء الديوباندية والجامع الأحمر ومن خلالهما ظهرت الجماعة الإسلامية التي هي إخوان باكستان شيوخ الحركة الديوباندية الذين صنعوا طالبان كانت لهم معارك فكرية ضد العلمانيين الأفغان والباكستانيين وصلت لحد التكفير بالسبعينات وعندما أعلنت الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية الجهاد الأفغاني ضد السوفييت تطور نفوذ الحركة وأخذ بعدا شعبيا هو الذي ساهم بعد ذلك في سيطرتهم على أفغانستان بالتسعينات
فقهاء الصوفية الهنود الذين رأوا اهتمام الديوبانديين بالسياسة والحُكم تمردوا على هذا المذهب فخرجوا بجماعة جديدة تجمع بين الأخلاق الصوفية ومذهب أهل الحديث الديوباندي فكانت جماعة (التبليغ والدعوة) وهي التي تعاونت مع طالبان اجتماعيا فقط لكن لم تتعاون معها في السياسة ضعف العلمانيين الأفغان والباكستانيين هو السر في رواج وانتشار طالبان فالدولة لم تدعمهم مقابل انتشار كاسح لمدارس الديوباندية الدينية شبيه بما يحدث في مصر حين انتشرت مدارس الأزهر الدينية انتشارا كاسحا وبدعم من الدولة مما أدى لانقلاب سلفي هو المسيطر على المصريين إلى اليوم
مصر كانت مرشحة لتكرار النموذج الأفغاني لولا تسرع الجهاديين بقتل رموز الدولة ومسؤوليها ونخبتها إضافة للسياح والأقباط حيث صنع ذلك نقمة شعبية عليهم دفعت كثيرامن السلفيين والجماعات للحذر من إبداء قناعاتهم ونقد الجهاديين في الظاهر وهو الذي أدى لتأخير أفغنة مصر عشرات السنين بعد ثورة يناير ٢٠١١ في مصر تحالف الإخوان والسلفيين بكافة طوائفهم وتنوعاتهم الفكرية والسياسية إضافة لبعض الأزهريين لإنشاء دولة دينية على غرار الحركة الديوباندية الهندية ونموذج طالبان لكن التحالف وقع في سلسلة أخطاء سياسية دفعت الجيش لعزله وتشجيع الثورة عليه في يونيو عام ٢٠١٣

توجد آلاف من المدارس الديوباندية على مستوى العالم تخرج فكر طالبان كل يوم ترعاها ما تسمى جمعية علماء الإسلام أي ليس محصورا فقط على ‎أفغانستان بالضبط كما توجد آلاف من مدارس الأزهر التي تخرج سلفيين يؤمنون بتطبيق الشريعة السلفية والتقليد الحرفي الإرهابي
حركة طالبان لم تقوم على أساس مالي ودعم خارجي كما هو شائع بل قامت على جهود محلية وتبرعات شعبية عدم اعتماد طالبان على أموال الخارج صنع لها شعبية كبيرة ووجود أخلاقي مميز في باكستان وأفغانستان حتى أنه يمكن ملاحظة دعم إيراني جزئي للحركة في مقاومتها لأمريكا وتصريحات مسؤولي إيران الإيجابية تجاه زعمائها بعد رحيل الأمريكيين وتلك قصة أخرى مختلفة

يُرجى العلم أن الحركة الديوباندية الهندية التي أسست طالبان لم تكن متشددة في تطبيق تعاليمها بالبداية لكنها تشددت وصارت أكثر عدوانية بعد حروب الاستقلال الباكستانية ضد الهند ويمكن اعتبار أن تاريخ ظهور الجماعات الجهادية في آسيا الوسطى بصفة عامة كان مرتبطا بتلك الحروب ولولا الاحتلال السوفيتي ثم الأمريكي ما كان لطالبان أن تحكم أو تظهر في الصورة أو يكون لفقهاء الحركة الديوباندية أي نفوذ سياسي ولا لمدارسهم أي نفوذ سلطوي لكن الفوضى والظلم الذي صنعهما الاحتلال هو الذي مكّن لطالبان للظهور ومن ثم الانتشار ومن ثم الحُكم والسيادة.

Thursday 12 August 2021

What does the German federal elections mean for Brussels?!

The next German government will be a centrist coalition, as always, with all sorts of coalitions. This means that the EU can count on it to provide predictable and stable leadership as German politics shows a balance between European and international politics alike
But in the present situation, what does the German federal elections mean for Brussels?!

Most of the international actors share a strong commitment to the European Union, NATO and the Eurozone in general
Outside Germany the extent to which German security power and business interests underpin the European and international policies of its leaders are often underestimated
Membership of the European Union and NATO, for example, are not temporary projects for Germany but are at the heart of its national interest
No chancellor from a CDU background would abandon the eurozone or expel one of its members, and no chancellor from the Green Party's background would suddenly change course on China drastically despite some hard-line rhetoric emerging from party members as Germany's business interests are very strong

This policy is a double-edged sword that Europe can count on the incoming German government to provide stable and predictable leadership but no conceivable coalition seems willing to defy voters over their preference for some of the current policies such as tight fiscal rules, tight monetary policy, aversion to military interventions, and reduced confrontation with Russia or China

But there are subtle nuances between the possible alliances of the next German government that might affect Europe:
1️⃣ The (traffic light) coalition government will be keen to invest in modernizing Germany's economy and public administration, but this coalition will not be able to find a way in which the domestic fiscal rules can be reformed fundamentally against the opposition of the CDU because changing a provision of the constitution requires a two-thirds majority.  In the houses of the German parliament, the Bundestag and the Bundesrat It is possible to amend the existing financial rules through private investment funds but without proper change in Germany and therefore it will be difficult to reform the financial rules of the European Union
2️⃣ In contrast to the (Traffic Light) coalition, the CDU-Green coalition could reform Germany's fiscal rules by allowing more public investment to combat climate change and setting the tone for something similar at the EU level

In general, the mere fact that the German government will be a centrist coalition means that its European and international policies will be different from the status quo.

ما ‏أهمية ‏الإنتخابات ‏الفيدرالية ‏الألمانية ‏بالنسبة ‏لبروكسل؟

ستكون الحكومة الألمانية القادمة ائتلافا وسطيا كما جرت العادة بكل حيثيات الإئتلافات وهذا يعني أنه يمكن للإتحاد الأوروبي الاعتماد عليها لتوفير قيادة مستقرة ويمكن التنبؤ بها بكون السياسة الألمانية تظهر توازنا بين السياسة الأوروبية والدولية على حد سواء
لكن في الوضع الراهن ماذا تعني الانتخابات الفيدرالية الألمانية لبروكسل؟!

تشترك معظم الأطراف الدولية الفاعلة في الالتزام القوي إتجاه الاتحاد الأوروبي وتحالف قوات حلف شمال الأطلسي الناتو ومنطقة اليورو عموما
خارج ألمانيا غالبًا ما يتم الاستهانة بمدى القوة الأمنية والمصالح التجارية الألمانية التي ترسخ السياسات الأوروبية والدولية لقادتها عضوية الاتحاد الأوروبي وحلف شمال الأطلسي على سبيل المثال ليست مشاريع مؤقتة بالنسبة لألمانيا بل هي في صميم مصلحتها الوطنية ولن يقوم أي مستشار قادم من خلفية الاتحاد المسيحي الديمقراطي بالتخلي عن منطقة اليورو أو طرد أحد أعضائه ولن يغير اي مستشار من خلفية حزب الأخضر فجأة مساره بشأن الصين بشكل جذري على الرغم من بعض الخطابات المتشددة التي ظهرت من أعضاء الحزب حيث أن المصالح التجارية لألمانيا قوية للغاية

هذه السياسة تعتبر سيف ذو حدين يمكن لأوروبا الاعتماد على الحكومة الألمانية القادمة لتوفير قيادة مستقرة ويمكن التنبؤ بها ولكن لا يبدو أن هناك تحالفًا يمكن تصوره على استعداد لتحدي الناخبين بشأن تفضيلهم لبعض السياسات الحالية مثل القواعد المالية الصارمة والسياسة النقدية الصارمة والنفور من التدخلات العسكرية والحد من المواجهة مع روسيا أو الصين

ولكن هناك فروق تفصيلية دقيقة بين التحالفات المحتملة للحكومة الألمانية القادمة التي قد تؤثر على أوروبا
1️⃣ حيث ستكون حكومة تحالف (إشارة المرور) حريصة على الاستثمار في تحديث الاقتصاد والإدارة العامة في ألمانيا ولكن هذا التحالف لن يتمكن من إيجاد طريقة يمكن من خلالها إصلاح القواعد المالية المحلية بشكل أساسي ضد معارضة حزب الاتحاد المسيحي الديمقراطي لأن تغيير بندا من بنود الدستور يتطلب أغلبية الثلثين في مجلسي البرلمان الألماني البوندستاغ والبوندسرات من الممكن التعديل على قواعد المال الحالية من خلال صناديق الاستثمار الخاصة ولكن بدون تغيير مناسب في ألمانيا وبالتالي سيكون من الصعب إصلاح القواعد المالية للاتحاد الأوروبي
2️⃣ على النقيض من تحالف (إشارة المرور) يمكن لتحالف حزب الإتحاد المسيحي الديمقراطي وحزب الخضر إجراء إصلاح القواعد المالية في ألمانيا من خلال السماح بمزيد من الاستثمار العام لمكافحة تغير المناخ وتحديد النغمة لشيء مشابه على مستوى الاتحاد الأوروبي

بشكل عام فإن مجرد حقيقة أن الحكومة الألمانية ستكون ائتلافًا وسطيًا يعني أن سياساتها الأوروبية والدولية ستكون بأشكال مختلفة عن الوضع الراهن.

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