Germany in the face of the storm!

23 JAN 2022

Now that the (interesting) Germany's foreign policy towards Russia has been highlighted, many friends have asked me why Germany is behaving the way it is now towards the Ukrainian file in light of Western condemnation of the imminent possibility of Russian aggression against Ukraine?!

I can start briefly that German perceptions are different from the way the rest of NATO's countries operates in many aspects where the German mentality depends on three main factors:

1️⃣ Historical factors

2️⃣ Economic interests in the short and long terms

3️⃣ German public opinion and party politics

Some of Berlin's behavior has nothing to do with Russia or Ukraine in particular. Many Germans have an inability to accept that military power is important in international politics.

For the German mentality, military force is not only evil but useless, and since military force cannot solve any issue, there is no upside to giving arms to (conflict areas) like Ukraine where it can simply make everything worse, so most of the German arms companies are private and the state doesn't use them as a financial return, such as France, UK and the US for example!

Analysts and commentators who think that Germany's behavior is about the deliberate pursuit of its national interest at the expense of the Allies misread the German mindset because many Germans really believe their position is morally superior Here the Germans believe that history is important not to repeat its mistakes. There is an obligation in the minds of many Germans not to exaggerate dealing with Russia because the Germans killed millions of Russians during World War II, but this same way of thinking does not extend to Ukraine even though the Germans also killed millions of Ukrainians But the Germans repeat the idea, only don't do that, as the Germans believe that giving arms to Ukraine does not serve the Ukrainians in defending themselves, as giving German arms will help to kill the Russians and open the door to insecurity in Ukraine, and this will make everything worse and create an opportunity to empty Ukraine by resorting to Europe

Regardless of the moral question of the German mentality, nothing is more important to Germans than the pursuit of short-term economic interests. The German mind believes that if we can activate free trade with everyone and not worry about security or other political considerations, why not? This is what Germany does

From a geopolitical point of view, of course, Berlin can give priority to economic interests precisely because it is very safe Ukrainians, Georgians, or Estonians might be invaded by the Russians, but even if NATO didn't exist, the Russians probably wouldn't retake Berlin anytime soon If you discuss the issue of military power with the Germans, they will often reply: "Well, who is going to invade us?!" This loses relevance to the idea of ​​borders, but it also makes sense that Germans think that no one attacks Germany, at least not before attacking dozens of other countries

This leads us to public opinion. If you feel as safe as the Germans and think that military force is not only evil but useless, why does German foreign policy support military force?! Well most Germans don't. Politicians know that and that's what makes them reluctant to change course

Last but not least, party politics are seen as too restrictive

Where in Germany if you are elected leader of the Green Party or the Social Democrats or the Christian Democrats tomorrow you should not only be concerned about public opinion but also about your party's ranking among the six parties and the order of priorities

I will be asked here: What worries you about arranging your party and arranging priorities?! The policy of antagonizing Moscow and militarizing the Germans, whatever your party is in Berlin, you will receive angry calls from state institutions

German elites pick up these coordinates very sensitively, and analysts who point out that economic interests are the main factor influencing Germany's foreign policy, underestimate the coordinates I wrote above

I've seen some non-German people arguing that it's all because of Germans' DNA, genetic predisposition to aggression, or desire for strong leadership. I see this argument as some kind of nonsense

Anyway this is a complicated topic and obviously social media is not the place to talk about these nuances so everything in this topic is an oversimplification but I hope it will be useful or interesting for some of you.