Thursday 20 January 2022

Will the Crimea scenario be repeated, or will the series of gains continue?!

20 JAN 2022

We will talk about the latest developments regarding the Ukrainian crisis, which has become the talk of the world with the sound of war drums
In this article, you will find the scenarios of the Ukrainian crisis that I see most likely in the current situation and how the gains will continue for several parties, including the administration of US President Joe Biden, Russian President #VladimirPutin and arms companies!

The crisis in Ukraine is not a result of today, but rather an extension of many years since at least the dissolution of the Soviet Union where the independence of countries that were part of the composition of the Soviet Union, such as Ukraine, which since the pro-Western government came, especially the US, where the West succeeded in incursion at the closest point was a very important part of Russia, which is Ukraine since then the conflict has continued and is the master of the situation, as Russia has tried with all its efforts to move its loyalists inside the Ukrainian interior, which resulted in a war between Ukraine and its legitimate government with the Ukrainian rebels who follow the Russians

More than a month ago, US intelligence published reports confirming that Russia intended to invade Ukraine, especially with the Russian military build-up on Ukraine's borders. The West considered this a preparation for Russian military action to invade Ukraine, which Russia denied about its intention to invade Ukraine, according to several reports I previously mentioned at the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis the impossibility of Putin invading Ukraine, knowing that the Western allies, especially Washington, expressed the Biden administration’s refusal to send forces in support of Ukraine, and the threats were limited to severe sanctions against Russia these responses were interpreted as giving Putin the green light to act as happened in the Crimea issue when Biden himself was Vice President Barack Obama, but Putin will not fall into this trap, which will cost him a lot and be a big point for Western mobilization against Russia Therefore, with the passage of more than a month, we have not heard on the ground of any Russian invasion, as the American media machine portrayed it, about a confirmed attack coming to invade Ukraine by Russia

The question that arises here: Why all this American media hype, which confirms day after day about a confirmed invasion of Ukraine by Russia?!
As I mentioned, the administration of President Biden has become, especially with a significant decline in his popularity, according to opinion polls in America. Therefore, Biden wants to achieve victory in the Ukraine file, albeit formally. But how does the Biden administration achieve success in the Ukraine file?
From a close follow-up in the last period, especially this event, I found that the Biden administration knows that Putin will not undertake a comprehensive military invasion of Ukraine, so the repetition of Biden’s threats to the Russians to impose devastating economic sanctions on the Russian economy aims, over time, to record an illusory victory. Its threats to the Russians to stop the invasion of Ukraine came as a result, and Biden stressed Against Russia prevented the invasion and this is what Democrats in Washington want now, especially ahead of the midterm elections in the US And the state of American institutions wants to prevent India from cooperating with Russia, so a contact was made between the US Deputy Secretary of State and the Indian Minister of Foreign Affairs regarding the necessity of military cooperation and selling more weapons to New Delhi here, the arms companies play an important role, and that is why the Biden administration's crisis file in Ukraine is of paramount importance now Therefore, I repeat and repeat that Putin will not undertake a comprehensive invasion of Ukraine, all that is there is that the Ukraine file is useful for the Russians as well as useful for the Biden administration to improve the president's popularity

How is the Ukrainian crisis useful for Putin?! Moscow will use the Ukraine file to pressure the West to achieve gains, the most important of which is obtaining some concessions on other files and Putin knows that in more than one situation, things reach a real crisis with America and the West, and of course in the end they meet at the negotiating table, and here Putin achieves some political gains in these negotiations In addition, Putin knows that Washington is now unable to fight any costly war, especially after the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, as well as its withdrawal from Iraq, as well as a significant reduction in the size of the American bases around the world Therefore, Putin knew that America would not venture into a private military war, as the American economy was experiencing a rise in the size of the government debt to frightening numbers, which reached close to 32 trillion dollars This, of course, gives an indication that the United States is not fighting any war in the world, so the Russian voice has risen more than ever

As I mentioned earlier more than once that Putin will not invade Ukraine and fall into the trap, because although the Ukrainian government is now pro-Western, the West has its interest in a costly war on the Russian economy The West considers that Russia falling into the Ukrainian quagmire comes from the West’s interest, since most of the composition of the Ukrainian population is mainly Russian, so if the war breaks out, the West will not participate in sending armies, but the war will be the biggest loser in it, Russia from this standpoint, I expected the impossibility of Putin falling into the trap and invading Ukraine

The summary of what was said: The Ukrainian crisis is useful for the Biden administration to score a fake victory to improve Biden’s popularity. It is also useful for the Russians, because they will use it to pressure the West without war to achieve gains on other files. Therefore, I do not expect at all a comprehensive Russian invasion of Ukraine.

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